Fed Rate Increase Probabilities
Probability of a Fed Funds rate hike, hold, or cut from app_fedprob, based on Blue Chip forecaster expectations by survey vintage and forecast horizon.
Target Period
2025Q1
Jan 1, 2025
Prob. Increase
0.0%
▲ Hike probability
Prob. Unchanged
0.0%
● Pause probability
Prob. Decrease
100.0%
▼ Cut probability
Rate Change Probability Timeline
Hike / hold / cut odds for the next forecast period by survey vintage
Latest Horizon Breakdown
Hike / hold / cut odds by forecast horizon for 2024-12
Latest Vintage Details
Mean forecast, implied basis-point change, modal direction, and forecaster count
| Horizon | Period | Hike | Hold | Cut | Mean FF | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H0 | 2024Q4 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 4.58% | Hold |
| H1 | 2025Q1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.20% | Cut |
| H2 | 2025Q2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.92% | Cut |
| H3 | 2025Q3 | 0.0% | 15.6% | 84.4% | 3.71% | Cut |
| H4 | 2025Q4 | 0.0% | 41.3% | 58.7% | 3.57% | Cut |
| H5 | 2026Q1 | 0.0% | 66.2% | 33.8% | 3.48% | Hold |
Data Source
This page reads the completed Fed rate probability app from app_fedprob. It shows the implied probability of a hike, hold, or cut by survey vintage and by forecast horizon.
Probability Methodology
The table summarizes the forecast distribution across forecasters and converts expected rate changes into probabilities for increase, decrease, or no change in the US Federal Funds Rate.