Federal Funds Rate

Fed ProbabilityTaylor RuleLatest vintage: —

app4_taylor_rule

Federal Funds Rate

Taylor Rule implied rates from app4_taylor_rule, plus hike, hold, and cut probabilities from app_fedprob.

Target Period

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Prob. Increase

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▲ Hike probability

Prob. Unchanged

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● Pause probability

Prob. Decrease

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▼ Cut probability

Fed Rate Probabilities

No Fed rate data available yet.

Data Source

This page reads the completed Taylor Rule app from app4_taylor_rule and the Fed rate probability app from app_fedprob.

Rate Methodology

The Taylor Rule chart compares the Blue Chip Fed Funds consensus path with the model-implied policy rate by horizon. The probability charts convert expected rate changes into hike, hold, and cut odds.