Federal Funds Rate
Taylor Rule implied rates from app4_taylor_rule, plus hike, hold, and cut probabilities from app_fedprob.
Target Period
2025Q1
Jan 1, 2025
Prob. Increase
0.0%
▲ Hike probability
Prob. Unchanged
0.0%
● Pause probability
Prob. Decrease
100.0%
▼ Cut probability
Fed Funds Forecast vs Taylor Rule Implied Rate
Blue Chip consensus and forecast range compared with the Taylor Rule path from app4_taylor_rule
| Horizon | Quarter | Fed Consensus | Taylor Consensus | Policy Gap | Forecasters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q+1 | 1st Qtr 2025 | 4.20% | 1.03% | 3.17 pp | 45 |
| Q+2 | 1st Qtr 2026 | 3.48% | 1.03% | 2.45 pp | 45 |
| Q+3 | 2nd Qtr 2025 | 3.92% | 1.02% | 2.90 pp | 45 |
| Q+4 | 3rd Qtr 2025 | 3.71% | 1.02% | 2.69 pp | 45 |
| Q+5 | 4th Qtr 2024 | 4.58% | 1.03% | 3.55 pp | 45 |
| Q+6 | 4th Qtr 2025 | 3.57% | 1.02% | 2.55 pp | 45 |
Rate Change Probability Timeline
Hike / hold / cut odds for the next forecast period by survey vintage
Latest Horizon Breakdown
Hike / hold / cut odds by forecast horizon for 2024-12
Latest Vintage Details
Mean forecast, implied basis-point change, modal direction, and forecaster count
| Horizon | Period | Hike | Hold | Cut | Mean FF | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H0 | 2024Q4 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 4.58% | Hold |
| H1 | 2025Q1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.20% | Cut |
| H2 | 2025Q2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.92% | Cut |
| H3 | 2025Q3 | 0.0% | 15.6% | 84.4% | 3.71% | Cut |
| H4 | 2025Q4 | 0.0% | 41.3% | 58.7% | 3.57% | Cut |
| H5 | 2026Q1 | 0.0% | 66.2% | 33.8% | 3.48% | Hold |
Data Source
This page reads the completed Taylor Rule app from app4_taylor_rule and the Fed rate probability app from app_fedprob.
Rate Methodology
The Taylor Rule chart compares the Blue Chip Fed Funds consensus path with the model-implied policy rate by horizon. The probability charts convert expected rate changes into hike, hold, and cut odds.