Interest Rate Histograms
The starting point of the platform: for each interest rate in the survey, six histograms — one per forecast quarter — showing how the panel’s opinions are distributed. Every figure shown is the MIDAS weekly version of the monthly survey, and panel members appear only as numbers.
Rates Covered
15
Short to long term
Forecast Quarters
6
Histograms per rate
Panel Members
41
of 45 surveyed
Weekly Runs
4
MIDAS vintages
Six-Quarter Rate Histograms
MIDAS weekly version · week of Nov 25, 2024 · 41 of 45 panel members
Fed Funds
Week of Nov 25, 2024 · MIDAS weekly version · 6 forecast quarters
Q1 is the nearest forecast quarter, top left. Q6 is the most distant, bottom right. Read them in that order to watch the panel spread out as the horizon lengthens.
Forecast Quarter
Q4 2024
1 quarter out
Q1
n=41
μ=4.91 σ=0.16
4.65–5.63
Forecast Quarter
Q1 2025
2 quarters out
Q2
n=41
μ=4.45 σ=0.19
4.15–5.03
Forecast Quarter
Q2 2025
3 quarters out
Q3
n=41
μ=4.12 σ=0.25
3.69–4.63
Forecast Quarter
Q3 2025
4 quarters out
Q4
n=41
μ=3.85 σ=0.28
3.23–4.36
Forecast Quarter
Q4 2025
5 quarters out
Q5
n=41
μ=3.66 σ=0.25
3.07–4.06
Forecast Quarter
Q1 2026
6 quarters out
Q6
n=41
μ=3.54 σ=0.25
3.07–4.02
Bars show the share of the panel in each bin. The yellow curve is a kernel density estimate; the dashed vertical line marks the panel mean.
What you are looking at
The underlying survey is published monthly. We do not display those published numbers. MIDAS turns each panel member's monthly quarterly forecast into a weekly series, and it is that weekly model output — refreshed every week — which is plotted here. For the week you select, each member's six quarterly levels are carried forward by that member's own MIDAS-estimated move since the anchor level.
Panel members are identified by number only. The mapping between a number and an institution is kept outside the application and is never sent to the browser.
Reading the six panels together is the core idea: at six quarters out opinion is diffuse and often multimodal, and it tightens toward a single peak as the horizon shortens. The point at which that consensus forms is the signal.