Macrovariables Forecasts
Publication-version forecasts from app1_macrovariables. Blue Chip survey expectations are used as signals to forecast additional macroeconomic variables that are not directly included in the survey.
Variables Tracked
34
Forecast Periods
1-6
Quarters ahead
Latest Publication
Dec 1, 2024
Data available
Data Source
app1_macrovariables
Database table
Latest Publication Forecast Table
All variables — Dec 1, 2024
| Variable | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | Q6 | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 285446.31 | 267358.95 | 265792.80 | 265658.68 | 257391.51 | 262869.17 | — |
| Producer Price Index | 266.30 | 250.15 | 251.67 | 253.34 | 245.33 | 252.19 | — |
| Building Permits | 1794.10 | 1722.03 | 1709.00 | 1710.72 | 1699.89 | 1724.14 | — |
| Industrial Production | 96.29 | 92.54 | 93.41 | 94.91 | 92.24 | 94.26 | — |
| Retail Sales | 597877.90 | 573086.39 | 570994.11 | 560461.89 | 551291.45 | 555551.70 | — |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.65 | 3.24 | 3.60 | 3.82 | 3.60 | 3.96 | — |
| Consumption | 9.64 | 9.62 | 9.62 | 9.59 | 9.58 | 9.56 | — |
| Nonresidential Structures | 6.50 | 6.48 | 6.47 | 6.41 | 6.39 | 6.35 | — |
| Equipment | 5.60 | 5.58 | 5.57 | 5.53 | 5.54 | 5.51 | — |
| Residential Investment | 6.74 | 6.75 | 6.74 | 6.70 | 6.72 | 6.69 | — |
About This Model
This dashboard reads from app1_macrovariables, the table Samuel prepared for macrovariable forecast outputs. The core idea is to use Blue Chip survey variables as forecasting inputs for a wider set of macroeconomic targets, including variables that do not appear directly in the survey. That expands the dashboard from a survey viewer into a broader expectations-based forecasting product.