Signal: —Latest: —
Neftci Approach
Recession Forecasts
Neftci recession probabilities using the Blue Chip forecast path, including the red probability chart Gary selected and the predicted LEI band.
Latest Probability
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Blue Chip 2024
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Predicted LEI
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Consensus path
LEI Growth
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Month over month
● Expanding
History Points
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Full history table
Recession Probability - Blue Chip 2024
No recession forecast data available yet.
Neftci Recession Probability
This view uses the recession probability outputs stored in app2_recession_full_history and app2_recession_probability. The bottom red chart is the selected Blue Chip 2024 recession probability path.
Predicted LEI Band
The LEI chart shows the predicted Leading Economic Index path and interquartile range across forecasters. Wider bands mean more forecaster disagreement.