Recession Forecasts
Neftci recession probabilities using the Blue Chip forecast path, including the red probability chart Gary selected and the predicted LEI band.
Latest Probability
0.0%
Blue Chip 2024
▲ Expansion
Predicted LEI
92.79
Consensus path
LEI Growth
0.5
Month over month
▲ Expanding
History Points
227
Full history table
Recession Probability - Blue Chip 2024
Neftci recession probability, predicted LEI, and risk signal path
Recession Probability - Full History + Blue Chip 2024
Red line = Neftci recession probability. Dashed lines mark 50% and 70%.
Predicted LEI - Blue Chip Forecasts 2024
Blue band = interquartile range across forecasters.
Recession Probability - Blue Chip 2024
Neftci-conditioned probability using the Blue Chip forecast path.
Neftci Recession Probability
This view uses the recession probability outputs stored in app2_recession_full_history and app2_recession_probability. The bottom red chart is the selected Blue Chip 2024 recession probability path.
Predicted LEI Band
The LEI chart shows the predicted Leading Economic Index path and interquartile range across forecasters. Wider bands mean more forecaster disagreement.